The self-proclaimed “most important night in music” will be on January 26th, and I’m frankly ready to get it over with. The already-mainstream artists are sure to sweep the major awards, including two of the most viral artists of the past year: Lizzo and Billie Eilish.
Last year, the Recording Academy expanded the four general (most important) categories – Album of the Year, Record of the Year, Song of the Year, and Best New Artist – to eight nominations from five nominations previously.
As always, being nominated for a Grammy almost seems to be a more legitimate recognition than winning a Grammy, because the Academy is notorious for making nonsensical decisions. (We will never forget how Taylor Swift’s 1989 won over Kendrick Lamar’s To Pimp A Butterfly for Album of the Year in 2016.) So let’s try to predict who will win, who actually deserves the prize, and which “dark horse” nominee might unexpectedly snag the win.
Album Of The Year
- Bon Iver: I,I
- Lana Del Rey: NORMAN F***ING ROCKWELL!
- Billie Eilish: WHEN WE ALL FALL ASLEEP, WHERE DO WE GO?
- Ariana Grande: THANK U, NEXT
- H.E.R.: I USED TO KNOW HER
- Lil Nas X: 7
- Lizzo: CUZ I LOVE YOU (DELUXE)
- Vampire Weekend: FATHER OF THE BRIDE
Who will win: “Norman F*cking Rockwell” – Lana Del Rey or “When we all fall asleep, where do we go?” – Billie Eilish
Who should win: “Norman F*cking Rockwell” – Lana Del Rey
Wild cards: “Father of the Bride” – Vampire Weekend and “I,I” – Bon Iver
“Album of the Year” has consistently gone to questionable winners, sometimes not even the commercial or critical favorite. In the past, the Recording Academy has favored pop and rock albums and noticeably passed over hip-hop projects. That preference may work out for the soft rock Norman F*cking Rockwell!, though it had a more modest commercial performance than other nominees. Lana Del Rey’s best album to date deserves the nod here, and it would be nice to award her decade-long artistic evolution. Billie can win in categories for single tracks; she doesn’t need to win this category, but with both commercial success and positive critic reviews, she can take home the most coveted prize. Ultimately, the Grammy voters might award other major artists like Bon Iver or Vampire Weekend for their strong albums.
Record Of The Year
- Bon Iver: HEY, MA
- Billie Eilish: BAD GUY
- Ariana Grande: 7 RINGS
- H.E.R.: HARD PLACE
- Khalid: TALK
- Lil Nas X ft. Billy Ray Cyrus: OLD TOWN ROAD
- Lizzo: TRUTH HURTS
- Post Malone & Swae Lee: SUNFLOWER
Who will win: “Truth Hurts” – Lizzo
Who should win: “Bad Guy” – Billie Eilish
Wild card: “7 Rings” – Ariana Grande
It’s hard to imagine Lizzo won’t win anything in the four major categories. Given the songwriting disputes over “Truth Hurts,” however, it would be more appropriate to recognize everyone who worked on this song (including producers and engineers) through Record of the Year. But “Bad Guy”’s sleek, stripped-down beat and nonchalant attitude captures the spirit of 2019 and the rise of alternative pop sounds. “Old Town Road,” while genre-bending and viral, is too short, and the production is incredibly generic and unimpressive. “7 Rings” might have lost its impact because of its early release, but it has a refreshing production. With its twist on “My Favorite Things” from the classic film “The Sound of Music” (1965) and its trap-inspired cadences, it would be a nice choice for this prize.
Song Of The Year
- Lady Gaga: ALWAYS REMEMBER US THIS WAY
- Billie Eilish: BAD GUY
- Tanya Tucker: BRING MY FLOWERS NOW
- H.E.R.: HARD PLACE
- Taylor Swift: LOVER
- Lana Del Rey: NORMAN F***ING ROCKWELL
- Lewis Capaldi: SOMEONE YOU LOVED
- Lizzo: TRUTH HURTS
Who will win: “Bad Guy” – Billie Eilish
Who should win: “Norman F*cking Rockwell” – Lana Del Rey
Wild card: “Lover” – Taylor Swift
“Song of the Year” is a songwriting award, and the strange thing about this year’s nominees is that no one song jumps out as a strong contender. Legal disputes over credits on “Truth Hurts” decreased Lizzo’s chances of winning this category. “Bad Guy,” while a viral hit, has strange, suggestive, and eyebrow-raising lyrics; we’ll see if the Recording Academy notices. “Norman F*cking Rockwell” is far from the best written from Lana Del Rey’s album, but it’s still the best out of all the nominees, with impressive lines like “Self-loathing poet, resident Laurel Canyon know-it-all.” “Lover” might get mixed up with other romantic ballads like “Someone You Loved” or “Hard Place,” but it only has one writer – the Academy might award Taylor Swift for that achievement.
Best New Artist
- BLACK PUMAS
- BILLIE EILISH
- LIL NAS X
- LIZZO
- MAGGIE ROGERS
- ROSALÍA
- TANK AND THE BANGAS
- YOLA
Who will win: Billie Eilish or Lizzo
Who should win: Billie Eilish
Wild cards: Maggie Rogers and Rosalia
Everyone seems to agree that this category is a toss-up between Billie Eilish and Lizzo. Both of these artists have die-hard fans and garnered nominations in the four major categories, with Billie setting a record as the youngest artist ever nominated for all four at the age of seventeen. However, Lizzo’s musical career began much earlier than Billie’s. Lizzo released her first studio album in 2013, making Billie the true “new” artist. She has been a viral force of nature since her breakout single “Ocean Eyes” back in 2016, so she deserves this prize for reshaping the mainstream pop sound. Maggie Rogers and Rosalia, with their smaller but fervent fan bases, can similarly take the prize. Less-mainstream artists have won before: in 2018, Alessia Cara bested Khalid, Lil Uzi Vert, SZA, and Julia Michaels.
Best Pop Vocal Album
- Beyoncé: THE LION KING: THE GIFT
- Billie Eilish: WHEN WE ALL FALL ASLEEP, WHERE DO WE GO?
- Ariana Grande: THANK U, NEXT
- Ed Sheeran: NO. 6 COLLABORATIONS PROJECT
- Taylor Swift: LOVER
Who will win: “thank u, next” – Ariana Grande
Who should win: “thank u, next” – Ariana Grande
Wild card: “Lover” – Taylor Swift
Not only did “thank u, next” produce some of the biggest hits and memes of 2019, it shows refreshing innovation from Ariana tinged with hip-hop influence. Her production is more sophisticated, and her vocal performance oozes with with more personality on top of her impressive vocal skills. Since Billie Eilish is likely to sweep some of the major categories, giving Best Pop Vocal Album to Ariana would be nice. However, the Recording Academy notably passed over Taylor Swift’s “Reputation” last year for Ariana Grande instead, and they might flip it around this year.
Best Music Video
- The Chemical Brothers: WE’VE GOT TO TRY
- Gary Clark Jr.: THIS LAND
- FKA twigs: CELLOPHANE
- Lil Nas X & Billy Ray Cyrus: OLD TOWN ROAD (OFFICIAL MOVIE)
- Tove Lo: GLAD HE’S GONE
Who will win: “Cellophane” – FKA twigs
Who should win: “Cellophane” – FKA twigs
Wild card: “Old Town Road” – Lil Nas X
If the Grammy voters have the tiniest appreciation for art – art that shocks, transforms, provokes – the winner jumps out as FKA twigs. This music video is a landmark achievement in the 2010s with breathtaking choreography, imaginative cinematography, video effects, and editing. Reclaiming pole dancing as an art rather than a strictly sexual performance, FKA twigs turns her body into a vessel for her deepest pains, fears, and desires. She does not have mainstream fame to her advantage, but as the most unique female artist in the music industry right now, she and her crew deserve to win for this video. But the Grammys are not always good at recognizing the best art, and they might choose to award Lil Nas X instead for the humorous and anachronistic music video for “Old Town Road.”
Nadia Jo 